Modeling Basketball Shooting Patterns Using Markov Chains: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Hot Hand Phenomenon
ADTM 2026 Conference · SCE Beer Sheva · supported by IEEE
Academic Research
Formal research across mathematics, algorithms, and data.
My academic work spans probabilistic and statistical modeling, algorithms, network analysis, Torah & Science, and applications where mathematical structure meets messy real-world data.
Research areas
Current and continuing themes
Probability & Statistics
Probabilistic modeling, forecasting, Markov chains, statistical inference, and dependence.
Algorithms
Approximation algorithms, optimization, broadcasting problems, and algorithmic problem solving.
Data Science & Networks
Social network analysis, graph-based methods, empirical data science, and sockpuppet detection.
Medical / Menstrual-Cycle Modeling
Probabilistic and statistical modeling of menstrual-cycle patterns and forecasting questions.
Torah & Science
Mathematical and statistical research at the interface of Jewish law, traditional sources, and empirical science.
Quantitative Finance
Academic work where statistical methodology, empirical validation, and financial markets overlap.
Peer-reviewed work
Selected publications
Statistical Analysis for the Religious Laws of Abstinence before Menstruation
B.D.D. 38–40, 59–74
Fixed-Difference Menstruation Markov Chain
B.D.D. 36, 77–104
Reliability of Menstrual Cycle Reporting in Surveys with Regard to Jewish Religious Laws
Functional Differential Equations 26(1–2), 1–13
Talks & conferences
Recent research presentations
Data-Driven Risk-Adjusted Performance Analysis: A Structural Complement to Classical Risk-Adjusted Ratios
ADTM 2026 Conference · SCE Beer Sheva · supported by IEEE
Modeling Shooting Streaks with Markov Chains
Graduate Research Seminar · Shenkar · May 27, 2026
Talk details
This lecture presented a data-driven analysis of NBA shot sequences using first- and second-order Markov-chain dependence tests. The study models shots by outcome and shot type, uses a two-decade NBA dataset, and finds some short-term dependence without evidence for a strong or consistent hot hand effect.
Academic mentorship
Supervised student projects
Selected capstone and research projects across quantitative finance, NLP, network analysis, navigation, algorithms, and software systems, with abstracts, methods, visuals, demos, and research outcomes added as materials are consolidated.
Explore supervised projects →Research pipeline
Current projects
Hot Hand Modeling
First- and second-order Markov-chain models for longitudinal basketball shooting behavior.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Developing structural measures that complement classical Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar-style evaluation.
Wikipedia Sockpuppet Detection
NLP, network analysis, and higher-order response structures for identifying coordinated identities.
Agent-Based Tag
Geometric and directional awareness in agent-based pursuit and tag environments.